Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
